Decision · value 10.0
Address 3.4-month cash runway
3-year revenue change, P50
vs. do-nothing -1.2%incremental +5.0pp
Revenue change over 3 years
P50 +3.8%[-1.1%, +8.9%]
18% chance of net loss
Plain English
Your top decision right now is addressing a 3.4-month cash runway. We expect this to improve revenue by about 4% over 3 years, with a typical range of -1% to +9%. Doing nothing leaves you at -1.2%. Mr. Hennessey should open a $250K line of credit with a regional bank within 30 days. The biggest risk is your top client (22% of revenue) departing — 8% probability.
Action
Next step
Open a $250K line of credit with first regional bank within 30 days; accelerate AR via 2/10 net 30 incentive
DRI · Mr. Hennessey
Top risk
Top-client departure within 90 days while runway is being repaired
8% probability · ~$388K impact
Top drivers · variance attribution
AR acceleration unlocking ~1.28 mo runway
+55%
LOC buffer avoiding forced operational cuts
+30%
Temporary 20% partner draw reduction
+15%
Sensitivity · what drives the spread
Most of the uncertainty comes from ar collection rate and loc drawdown timing.