Pricing simulator
Median revenue impact
+12.1%
range
−4.2% to +31.4%
Probability distribution · 5,000 iterations
Direction confidence
78%
Churn delta
+1.9 pp
Evidence tier
Strong
“A 1% price increase translates into an 8.7% increase in operating profits. Yet up to 30% of pricing decisions fail to deliver the best price.”
McKinsey & Company — Using Big Data to Make Better Pricing Decisions
You give us
< 30 seconds of input
You get
Median revenue impact
+12.1%
−4.2% to +31.4%
Direction confidence
78%
Churn delta
+1.9 pp
Evidence tier
Strong
Iterations
5,000
Behavioral flags
“Roll out to annual contracts first. Monitor the 18% of monthly customers closely — they carry the largest churn risk.”
Full probability distribution
P10–P90 outcomes, not a single point estimate. See the range of what could happen.
Calibrated confidence
Brier score 0.176 — better than random (0.25). Every claim is scored against reality.
Evidence tiers
Strong, moderate, or weak — every output comes with an honest confidence label.
Customer-level simulation
Not just aggregate revenue — see which personas churn, who trades down, who stays.
Price optimizer
Search the full price curve. Find revenue-maximizing point with confidence bands.
Deep mode analysis
Executive summary, risk matrix, precedents, implementation playbook — board-ready.
Pulse
ProductionThe default engine — fast, calibrated, and accurate on known case types.
Prism
ReasoningExtended chain-of-thought for novel cases where pattern matching falls short.
Oracle
DebateThree agents argue opposite sides so no single perspective dominates the result.
Atlas
FlagshipThe only tier that runs actual Monte Carlo — real distributions, not inferred uncertainty.
Trust
Brier score
Lower is better · random = 0.250
Direction accuracy
184 validated cases
Interval coverage
P10–P90 contains the outcome 92% of the time
How we validate
Outcomes sourced from public SEC filings, merchant-level revenue reports, and first-party customer data supplied under consent.
Each prediction scored against the realised revenue change in the 30 days following the pricing change.
Every case in the ledger is counted — no outliers removed, no misses dropped.
Recent validated cases
| Case | Predicted | Actual | Direction | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strava | +23.8% | +24% | ✓ | 99 |
| Chewy | +3.2% | +4% | ✓ | 93 |
| Chick-fil-A | +7.9% | +5% | ✓ | 88 |
| Five Guys | +4.1% | +2% | ✓ | 85 |
| Wix | +4.4% | +13% | ✓ | 71 |
| Canva | -24.9% | +43% | ✗ | 0 |
| Wayfair | +2.4% | -1.3% | ✗ | 12 |
Cases 4 and 5 had structural issues identified before prediction (heterogeneous customer base, model restructuring). Flagged and documented. We show the failures because the honesty is the product.
Showing 7 of 184. Full CSV available on request.
About
Existing alternatives are insufficient. Human advisors are expensive and slow. Internal analytical capacity is inaccessible to most organizations. Our hypothesis is that AI has crossed the threshold where it can simulate business outcomes, learn from past decisions, and make any operator meaningfully more informed.
We’re building toward a future where world-class decision analysis has no price barrier.
Pricing
Everything is unlocked. If you need more — bigger teams, unlimited simulations, custom integrations — reach out and we’ll work something out.
Beta
No credit card. No expiry.
Need more?
We’ll figure out what makes sense.
Or email us directly at hello@aktara.ai